Role of Arabian Sea Warming in Modulating Trough Dynamics and Enhancing the 2024 Dubai Flood Event

Abstract

Understanding climate extremes is crucial for improving forecasting capabilities and reducing risks to lives and property. On 16 April 2024, Dubai, an arid desert city in the United Arab Emirates, experienced an unprecedented 24-hour rainfall event of nearly 250 mm, it is the heaviest on record. This study investigates the atmospheric and oceanic mechanisms that led to this extreme event, emphasizing both large-scale and synoptic-scale drivers, along with the role of regional ocean warming. Analyses reveal that strong low-level convergence and anomalous moisture transport from the Arabian Sea, Red Sea, and Persian Gulf were central to the convective intensification. The Arabian Sea exhibited anomalously warm sea surface temperatures (exceeding +1.2°C), enhancing lower- to mid-tropospheric moisture and latent heat availability. A pronounced cyclonic circulation anomaly in the lower troposphere, coupled with a deep mid- to upper-level trough, sustained strong vertical wind shear and dynamical instability. The juxtaposition of upper-level anticyclonic and cyclonic patterns in the 200 hPa geopotential height field facilitated large-scale ascent, while an intensified subtropical jet stream enhanced upper-level divergence. The vertical alignment of these dynamical and thermodynamical features promoted deep convection and heavy precipitation over Dubai. Overall, the event underscores the critical role of Arabian Sea warming and associated ocean-atmosphere feedbacks in amplifying rainfall extremes over the Arabian Peninsula. These findings highlight the need for integrated monitoring of regional SST anomalies and atmospheric circulation to improve early warning systems for future high-impact rainfall events in the region.