Hydrological Modeling for Water Balance Prediction, Streamflow Trend Analysis, and Variability Assessment: A Case Study of River Basins in Afghanistan

Abstract

Afghanistan grapples with multifaceted challenges concerning water availability and distribution, necessitating a comprehensive understanding of the current state of water resources. Given the pivotal role of water in sustaining agriculture, ecosystems, and socio-economic activities, a nuanced understanding is paramount. This study employs the widely acknowledged Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model as a robust modeling tool. The SWAT model facilitates the simulation of intricate interactions among precipitation, evapotranspiration, runoff, and groundwater recharge. The emphasis is placed on accurately capturing the unique hydrological characteristics of Afghanistan's diverse river basins. A paramount focus is placed on accurately capturing the diverse hydrological characteristics intrinsic to Afghanistan's varied river basins. Utilizing historical streamflow data, the study aims to discern patterns and variations over time. Model validation underscores the capability of the SWAT model in replicating basin hydrological dynamics, including snowmelt, and aligning simulated results with observed data for seasonal variations in surface water. In this study the average values of hydrological parameters simulated in Swat for Kabul basin where found out to be 516.57mm, 299.772mm, 82.09mm, 217.907mm for precipitation, evapotranspiration, groundwater recharge and water yield respectively. Nevertheless, the study highlights noteworthy temporal and spatial variations in the distribution of hydrological components. Employing statistical methods, the research discerns trends and critical changes in streamflow, providing a benchmark for restoring basin hydrological and environmental health. These insights hold the potential to inform water resource management practices in the face of scarcity. Ultimately, the research outcomes are poised to significantly augment our scientific comprehension of hydrological processes in Afghanistan. Beyond academia, this newfound understanding promises to guide policymakers, water resource managers, and researchers, offering crucial insights into potential challenges and opportunities for sustainable water management in a region contending with the ramifications of climate change and escalating water demand