Determination of ETCCDI climate change indices in Kabini basin, India

Abstract

In recent decades, various natural calamities and climatic events, with ever-increasing frequency and intensity, have been observed. Researchers across the globe believe that any further variation in the severity of extreme climate measures, would result in profound effects on society and nature, thus making it imperative for us to analyse these events and their causes. However, there is very limited knowledge about the trends of these events caused by variations in precipitation and temperatures. The Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI) has developed a set of 27 extreme climate indices for precipitation and temperatures, by analysing which a deeper trend analysis is possible, so as to better assess the possibilities of the future. This study estimates the ETCCDI indices and trend analysis in Kabini basin. The climate for the period 2015 - 2100 is projected, based on the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 (CMIP6) using the Global Climate Model (GCM), namely ACCESS-CM2 model, under two SSP scenarios (SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5). This study has used RClimDex (v 1.9) software to calculate various ETCCDI Indices. The precipitation extremes indicate that the ever-increasing peak intensity will continue to increase with a narrowing time base, while the temperature indices show that there will be a growing warm spell duration coupled with a climbing maximum daily temperature. Based on these findings, policies and action initiatives may be formulated to mitigate potential risks, and also to minimise the possibility of negative climate change events.