Modeling of climate change through time series analysis -a case study on eastern part of India

Abstract

Once upon a time, Mahatma Gandhi said: “EARTH PROVIDES ENOUGH TO SATISFY EVERY MAN’s NEEDS, BUT NOT EVERY MANS GREED”, so as the result of human’s greed today the whole world is facing a serious and dangerous problem which is nothing but the drastic climatic change. The main focus in this study is the area of monsoon track, the coastal region of the eastern part of India. The analysis is done from the climatic data of 20 randomly selected grid points from the study area. The climatic parameters used in this study are Maximum temperature, precipitation, wind speed, relative humidity, and solar radiation. ARIMA short term forecasting model was used to predict all these climatic parameters for the next decade which is hypothesis tested. It is needed to validate the observed regional data with the global data through downscaling techniques but the high percentage of error is detected from the comparison. As no much work has been done from a gradient point of view in the field of climatic change, gradient analysis is done for the selected region. An increasing trend was found from the gradient analysis over each 5year for two decades of observed data and one decade of predicted data. It is surprising to see that maximum temperature is increasing by 0.2oC in the summer season of each year for the upcoming decade in our study area. In the station, Sambalpur monsoon is shifting from the first week of June to the second week which will affect the cropping pattern .while comparing the concentration of percentage of rainfall in monsoon season and temperature gradient they both are in phase.